Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Essay About Hair Extensions — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture Essay About Hair Extensions the fabric of human history.
The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
For complete details, see below. Until I return to a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of this paragraph carefully. Now back to the future: Our forebears expected the future to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past. Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at that very early stage where an exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at all.
So their lack of expectations was largely fulfilled. Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow. But the future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: Bill and I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively.
When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for future periods. However, careful consideration of the pace of technology see more that the rate of progress is not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to http://cocktail24.info/blog/popular-admission-paper-proofreading-sites-for-masters.php changing pace, so the intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate.
Even for those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at the rate that we have experienced recently. So even though the rate of progress in the very recent past e. It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, extrapolate the current pace of change over the next 10 years or years to determine their expectations.
But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential. In exponential growth, Essay About Hair Extensions find that a key measurement such as computational power is multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time e.
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Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example. One can examine the data. What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the pace of technological change, advances at least exponentially, not linearly, and has been doing so since the advent of technology, indeed since the advent of evolution on Earth.
I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends. That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term because we tend to leave out necessary detailsbut underestimate what can be achieved in the long term because the exponential growth is ignored.
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If we apply these principles at the highest level of evolution on Earth, the first step, the creation of cells, introduced the paradigm of biology.
The subsequent emergence of DNA provided a digital method to record go here results of evolutionary experiments.
Then, the evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage i. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid combining biological and nonbiological thinking. If we examine the timing Essay About Hair Extensions these steps, we see that the process has continuously accelerated. The evolution of life forms required billions of years for the first steps e. During the Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of millions of years.
Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of millions of years, and Homo sapiens over a period of only hundreds of thousands of years. With the advent of a technology-creating species, the exponential pace became too fast for evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and moved on to human-created technology.
Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the previous round of innovation.
In this way, human technology is distinguished from the tool making of other species. There is a record of each stage of technology, and each http://cocktail24.info/blog/dr-essay-jr-king-luther-martin.php stage of technology builds on the order of the previous stage. The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the wheel—took tens of thousands of years. For people living in this era, there was little noticeable technological change in even a thousand years.
In the nineteenth century, we saw more technological change than in the nine centuries preceding it. Essay About Hair Extensions in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century.
Now, paradigm shifts occur in only a few years time.
The paradigm shift rate i. So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require in the linear view on the order of centuries.
So the twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor. Toward this end, I am fond of link the tale of the inventor of chess and his patron, the emperor of China. The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request.
One version of the story has the emperor going bankrupt as the 63 doublings ultimately totaled Essay About Hair Extensions million trillion grains of rice. At ten grains of rice per square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included.
Another version of the story has the inventor losing his head. It should be pointed out that as the emperor and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful. The inventor was given spoonfuls of rice, then bowls of rice, then barrels. It was as they progressed through the second half of the chessboard that the situation quickly deteriorated.
This is the nature of exponential growth. Although technology grows in the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world. So technological trends are not noticed as small levels of technological power click here doubled.
Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view. For example, when the Internet went from 20, to 80, nodes over a two year period during the s, this progress remained hidden from the general public.
A decade later, Essay About Hair Extensions it went from 20 million to 80 million nodes in the same amount of time, the impact was rather conspicuous.
As exponential growth continues to accelerate into the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to explode into infinity, at least from the limited and linear perspective of contemporary humans. The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to follow it. It will literally get out of our control. Can the pace of technological progress continue to speed up indefinitely?
Is there not a point where humans are unable to think fast enough to keep up with it?
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With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so. But what would a thousand scientists, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and each operating a thousand times faster than contemporary humans because the information processing in their primarily nonbiological brains is faster accomplish?
One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with? Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent because their see more is no longer of fixed capacity. They would change their own thought processes to think even faster. This, then, is Essay About Hair Extensions Singularity.
The Singularity is technological change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. My view is that despite our profound limitations of thought, constrained as we are today to a mere hundred trillion interneuronal connections in our biological brains, we nonetheless have sufficient powers of abstraction to make meaningful statements about the nature of life after the Singularity.
Most importantly, it is my view that the intelligence that will emerge will continue to represent the human civilization, which is already a human-machine civilization.
This will be the next step in evolution, the next high level paradigm shift. Singularity is a familiar word meaning a unique event with profound implications. In mathematics, the term implies infinity, the explosion of value that occurs when dividing a constant by a number that gets closer and closer to zero. In physics, similarly, a singularity denotes an event or location of infinite power.
At the center of a black hole, matter is so dense that its gravity is infinite. As nearby matter and energy are drawn into the black hole, an event horizon separates the region from the rest of the Universe. It constitutes a rupture in the fabric of Essay About Hair Extensions and time. The Universe itself is said to have begun with just such a Singularity. From my perspective, the Singularity has many faces. It represents the nearly vertical phase of exponential growth where the rate of growth is so extreme that technology appears to be growing at infinite speed.
Of course, from a mathematical perspective, there is no discontinuity, no rupture, and the growth rates remain finite, albeit extraordinarily large. But from our currently limited perspective, this imminent event appears see more be an acute and abrupt break in the continuity of progress. In other words, we will become vastly smarter as we merge with our technology.
When I wrote my first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, in the s, I ended the book with the specter of the emergence of machine intelligence greater than human intelligence, but found it difficult to look beyond this event horizon.
Now having Essay About Hair Extensions about its implications for the past 20 years, Essay About Hair Extensions feel that we are indeed capable of understanding the many facets of this threshold, one that will transform all spheres of human life. Consider more info few examples of the implications.
The bulk of our experiences will shift from real reality to virtual reality. Most of the intelligence of our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological, which by the end of this century will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than human intelligence.
However, to address often expressed concerns, this does not imply the end of biological intelligence, even if thrown from its perch of evolutionary superiority. Moreover, it is important to note that the nonbiological forms will be derivative of biological design. In other words, our civilization will remain human, indeed in many ways more exemplary of what we regard as human than it is today, although our understanding of the term will move beyond its strictly biological origins.
Many observers have nonetheless expressed alarm at the emergence of forms of nonbiological intelligence superior to human intelligence. My view is that the likely outcome is that on the one hand, from the perspective of biological humanity, these superhuman intelligences will appear to be their transcendent servants, satisfying their needs and desires. On the other hand, fulfilling the wishes of a revered biological legacy will occupy only a trivial portion of the intellectual power that the Singularity will bring.
Needless to say, the Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and economic, which I explore herewith. Given that the electrons have less distance to travel, the circuits also run twice as fast, providing an overall quadrupling of computational power.
By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course.